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RESEARCH AND EVIDENCE

Evidence to understand change. Not to predict people.

Career transitions cut across topics often studied separately: technology, tasks, skills, career mobility, income loss and financial decisions. This library brings together sources that help explain those pieces, their limitations and our interpretation of why they matter.

We prefer a smaller, well-supported conclusion to a large claim the evidence does not allow.

Selection reviewed: September 2026.

How to read this library.

  • Observed data is not a forecast.

    We separate what a source measured from what it projects.

  • The population matters.

    A result from one country, group or provider is not automatically universal.

  • Methodology matters.

    Exposure indexes, employer surveys, administrative data and consumer guidance answer different questions.

  • A source can be useful without proving the whole thesis.

    Evidence accumulates across distinct questions and explicit limitations.

Four questions we are following.

Work and technology

How tasks and jobs change with AI and technology.

Capabilities and mobility

How skills become visible and transferable.

Career transitions

What happens when people leave one role and move elsewhere.

Income shock and resilience

What happens when loss of work becomes a financial transition.

Work and technology.

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Generative AI and jobs: A 2025 update

20 May 2025 · Global task- and occupation-level exposure research

What it found or recommends

The ILO estimates that one in four workers worldwide is in an occupation with some degree of generative-AI exposure and says transformation is more likely than complete replacement because human input remains necessary.

How to read it

This is an exposure index built from tasks and occupations; it identifies potential for change.

What it does not prove

It does not predict that one quarter of workers will lose their jobs or determine what will happen to a particular person.

Why it matters to YoFWD

It supports examining tasks within a role before treating an entire profession as safe or threatened.

Read the original source: International Labour Organization (ILO)

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Workers’ exposure to AI: What indicators tell us – and what they don’t

17 Apr 2026 · Research brief on exposure measurement

What it found or recommends

Exposure indicators can show where AI might substitute for or transform tasks, but results vary by methodology.

How to read it

It is primarily a guide to what exposure indexes mean and do not mean.

What it does not prove

The ILO warns that exposure alone should not be interpreted as a prediction of job loss or labour-market outcomes.

Why it matters to YoFWD

It requires us to separate signals of change from predictions and communicate uncertainty.

Read the original source: International Labour Organization (ILO)

World Bank

World Development Report 2026: The Promise of Artificial Intelligence

4 Aug 2026 · Global development report with a developing-economy lens

What it found or recommends

AI’s impact depends on complementary capabilities such as infrastructure, skills and institutions, and may differ substantially across economies and contexts.

How to read it

Its main lens is economic development and technology adoption in developing economies, not individual career guidance.

What it does not prove

It does not turn a cross-country average into a career recommendation for one person.

Why it matters to YoFWD

YoFWD is global; the same technology does not create identical opportunities or risks in every market.

Read the original source: World Bank
Explore our synthesis on the future of work

Capabilities and mobility.

OECD

OECD Skills Outlook 2025

2025 · Cross-country skills and policy analysis

What it found or recommends

The OECD recommends stronger career guidance, recognition of prior learning, flexible pathways and skills-first approaches to support mobility and adaptation.

How to read it

This is a broad skills-systems and policy report whose recommendations require local market and regulatory adaptation.

What it does not prove

It does not mean formal credentials no longer matter or that regulated-profession licensing can be ignored.

Why it matters to YoFWD

It supports making transferable capabilities visible and closing specific gaps rather than assuming a title defines every option.

Read the original source: OECD

World Economic Forum

The Future of Jobs Report 2025

7 Jan 2025 · Employer survey; 1,000+ employers, 14M+ workers, 55 economies

What it found or recommends

Surveyed employers expect substantial changes in skills and roles through 2030; the report also identifies several forces of transformation beyond AI.

How to read it

It represents participating employers’ expectations and plans for 2025–2030.

What it does not prove

It is not a certain prediction of which skills will change for every worker, company or country.

Why it matters to YoFWD

It is a signal of employer demand and expectations that should be combined with local data, real tasks and market evidence.

Read the original source: World Economic Forum

Career transitions.

LHH / Adecco Group

Career Pivots After Layoffs: Where Workers Go Next

16 Sep 2026 · Proprietary provider dataset; 418,000+ people supported after layoffs

What it found or recommends

In its analysis of more than 418,000 people supported after job loss, LHH reports that 58% moved into different roles or careers.

How to read it

This is proprietary evidence from people who received LHH outplacement services; it is useful for observing patterns within that population.

What it does not prove

It does not show that 58% of all laid-off workers change function or that changing is always better.

Why it matters to YoFWD

It challenges the assumption that a transition must begin and end in the same role type and supports exploring adjacent capabilities.

Read the original source: LHH / Adecco Group
Explore our career transition page

Income shock and financial resilience.

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (U.S.)

Unexpected job loss

Page last modified 7 May 2025 · U.S. consumer guidance

What it found or recommends

The CFPB recommends building a clear view of income and spending, prioritizing obligations and contacting lenders or financial companies when employment or income changes.

How to read it

This is practical guidance for consumers in the United States.

What it does not prove

It does not establish which options, benefits, insurance or rights apply in other countries or contracts.

Why it matters to YoFWD

It supports pairing a job transition with immediate financial structure and early conversations, alongside the search for income.

Read the original source: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (U.S.)

OECD

Consumer Finance Risk Monitor 2026

2 Mar 2026 · Consumer-finance risk monitoring across participating jurisdictions

What it found or recommends

The OECD identifies high levels and costs of consumer debt as important risks to household financial resilience, alongside other consumer vulnerabilities.

How to read it

This monitors financial-consumer-protection risks across markets and jurisdictions; it is not a study of individual outcomes after unemployment.

What it does not prove

It does not show that a specific program reduces arrears or improves individual financial outcomes.

Why it matters to YoFWD

It helps explain why an income shock may quickly become a financial-resilience issue and why institutions may want to support people before conditions deteriorate.

Read the original source: OECD
See how we think about support after income loss

Questions that still need better evidence.

  • Which transferable capability combinations most often lead to durable career transitions?
  • How do useful transition paths differ by country, income, education and life constraints?
  • What is the real time and cost required to close specific skill gaps?
  • Which low-risk experiments best predict whether a new path fits before major retraining?
  • How does early support during an income shock affect decision quality, stress or recovery pathways?

These are research questions, not claims that YoFWD already has the answers.

What we require before adding a source.

  • Prefer a primary or original source.
  • The methodology, population or lens can be identified.
  • The date and current relevance are visible.
  • The claim can be stated without exceeding the evidence.
  • Limitations can be explained plainly.

A commercial source may be included when it contributes relevant data and its interest or population is clearly identified; it does not receive the same treatment as independent evidence by default.

Evidence informs a decision. It does not make it for the person.

Research can narrow uncertainty, reveal trade-offs and challenge assumptions.

Individual choice still depends on circumstances, constraints, preferences, the market and evidence gathered through real experiments.

Read our analysis in Insights
Our approachFuture of workCareer transition

YoFWD is not affiliated with the institutions or companies cited. Sources are included for traceability and critical analysis.

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